General election 2024 poll tracker: How do the parties compare? (2024)

Use our interactive poll tracker to check the latest trends measuring how people say they intend to vote.

What do the latest polls tell us?

Latest update: 3 July 2024

There has been a small but noticeable narrowing in the polls, writes senior political analyst Peter Barnes.

Polls published this week have tended to show the Conservatives gaining a little support whilst Labour has fallen back slightly.

And, in fact, if we compare the polls now with those from the beginning of the campaign both parties have seen their average rating fall but Labour's has dropped a bit more than the Conservatives'.

This shouldn't be exaggerated. Labour still has a commanding lead of about 18 points on average.

Reform UK are in third place - the rise we saw in support for them during the middle of the campaign has stalled in the final two weeks.

The Liberal Democrats are above where they started the campaign. The Greens, SNP and Plaid Cymru have been pretty stable throughout.

More polls could still be published, but any that come out on Thursday won't be included in the BBC poll tracker. Like other broadcasters the BBC has to abide by strict rules on how elections are reported on polling day.

General election 2024 poll tracker: How do the parties compare? (1)General election 2024 poll tracker: How do the parties compare? (2)

How big are the gaps between parties?

All polls are based on a sample of people interviewed, typically more than 1,000, which is then weighted to be representative of the country.

There is always a margin of error, meaning the real percentage could be higher or lower than any one poll suggests.

We estimate that the true support for each party lies within the ranges shown here.

What is a poll tracker?

Each dot in the chart shows one poll result for a party.

We summarise all that information with an average line that makes it easier to understand the trend.

General election 2024 poll tracker: How do the parties compare? (3)General election 2024 poll tracker: How do the parties compare? (4)

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Which polls do we use?

To get an appropriate range of polls for our averages, we use those conducted by members of the British Polling Council.

Its members agree to the same rules on transparency, but the council has said membership should not be seen as a guarantee of quality.

The polls we include have come from BMG, Deltapoll, Electoral Calculus, Find Out Now, Focaldata, Ipsos, JL Partners, More in Common, Opinium, Norstat (formerly Panelbase), People Polling, Redfield and Wilton Strategies, Savanta, Survation, Techne, Verian (formerly Kantar Public), WeThink (formerly Omnisis), Whitestone Insight and YouGov.

We only include the headline percentages on voting intention, which pollsters calculate by excluding or otherwise adjusting for those people who answered "don't know" or "won't vote".

Most of the polls included cover Great Britain, although some do poll the whole of the UK. People surveyed do not get the option to choose parties which only stand in Northern Ireland.

We include data that is in the public domain. Some polling companies will not publish all data for all parties at the same time.

Who pays for polls?

Where polling companies have stated in their data tables who their client is, we have included this in our table. It is common for polling companies to do their work for news organisations, television programmes and campaign groups.

What is the margin of error?

The true position for the Conservatives and Labour might be within five percentage points of our average.

Nine out of 10 polls just before election day have been within that range of the eventual national vote shares in the 2010 to 2019 general elections.

The gap has been smaller for other parties which campaign throughout Great Britain, such as the Liberal Democrats, Green party and Reform UK (formerly the Brexit Party) and smaller still for the SNP and Plaid Cymru.

How do we average the polls?

Our estimate of a party's support is a rolling average of polls.

A party's share on any given day is the average of their results from polls taken over the previous fortnight. We only take the most recent poll from each company for that day's averages.

Why do polling companies have different results?

All opinion polls will differ a bit because they are interviewing different people. There are also other things that can lead to differences between polling companies. For example:

  • Different companies find the people who take part in their polls in different ways
  • The precise wording of the question varies between pollsters, and some pollsters ask more than one question to reach their voting intention figures
  • Pollsters apply "weights" to their data to try to make their results reflect the make-up of the voting population. So if a particular poll has a smaller proportion of female respondents than there are in the wider population, their responses will be given extra weight in the final results. But different companies take different factors into account
  • The companies have different ways of treating people who initially say they do not know how they will vote, or are not certain if they will vote.

What do pollsters ask?

For voting intention, polling companies typically ask interviewees a question along the lines of: "If a general election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?"

Some polling companies have not given their interviewees the choice of some parties, including them within the "other" category.

For example, Reform UK, formerly the Brexit Party until 2021, has only been included as an option in every poll featured in our tracker since autumn 2022, while support for Plaid Cymru is included among "other" parties in polls released by Techne.

Produced by Grace Richardson, Scott Jarvis, Becky Rush, Allison Shultes, Libby Rogers, Daniel Wainwright, Aidan McNamee, Jana Tauschinski, Debie Loizou, Preeti Vaghela, Robert Cuffe, John Walton.

General election 2024 poll tracker: How do the parties compare? (5)General election 2024 poll tracker: How do the parties compare? (6)

What questions do you have about the general election?

In some cases your question will be published, displaying your name, age and location as you provide it, unless you state otherwise. Your contact details will never be published. Please ensure you have read our terms & conditions and privacy policy.

Use this form to ask your question:

If you are reading this page and can't see the form you will need to visit the mobile version of the BBC website to submit your question or send them via email to YourQuestions@bbc.co.uk. Please include your name, age and location with any question you send in.

Conservative Party

Scottish Greens

Plaid Cymru

Palace of Westminster

UK Parliament

Reform UK

Green Party (England and Wales)

General election 2024

Labour Party

Liberal Democrats

Brexit Party

SNP (Scottish National Party)

General election 2024 poll tracker: How do the parties compare? (2024)

FAQs

What are benchmark polls? ›

A benchmark poll is generally the first poll taken in a campaign. It is often taken before a candidate announces their bid for office, but sometimes it happens immediately following that announcement after they have had some opportunity to raise funds.

How are polls used in politics? ›

Political polls provide insights into to the preferences and beliefs of certain groups of people, often voters in a specific country, state, or district.

Why is polling important? ›

Because polling results around voting intentions are often publicised, he explains, the information they provide can influence voters' perception of the various parties' likelihood of winning an election, or the chances of being part of a coalition government. This can influence how people vote at the ballot box.

What is a push poll? ›

A push poll is an interactive marketing technique, most commonly employed during political campaigning, in which an individual or organization attempts to influence prospective voters' views under the appearance of conducting an opinion poll.

What are the 3 benchmarks? ›

The 3 Types of Benchmarks
  • Historical Benchmarks. These are benchmarks based on your own historical performance for a given channel or data set. ...
  • Competitor Benchmarks. These are benchmarks based on competitor performance. ...
  • Industry Benchmarks. These are benchmarks based on an industry or category standard of performance.
Dec 3, 2023

What does my benchmark score mean? ›

Benchmarks allow for easy comparison between multiple CPUs by scoring their performance on a standardized series of tests, and they are useful in many instances: When buying or building a new PC. Use benchmark scores to gauge a system's ability to run games and applications before making a purchase.

How accurate are the polls? ›

Many polls typically have a margin of error less than 3%, which "leads people to think that polls are more precise than they really are," the outlet added. But this margin "addresses only one source of potential error: the fact that random samples are likely to differ a little from the population just by chance."

Which polling company is the most accurate? ›

The New York Times/Siena College, for example, is the most accurate pollster in America.

How accurate are the Quinnipiac polls? ›

In more than 20 years of public opinion surveys, Quinnipiac University has developed a reputation for accuracy. From September 6 - 8, Quinnipiac University surveyed 782 likely Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

Is polling good or bad for democracy? ›

It's especially important in democracies whose politicians claim their mandates from the people and regularly insist that they represent the views and interests of the people. To ask the people, with regularity, for their own thoughts strikes us as being both useful and a check on the claims of those in power.

What is the main disadvantage of polling? ›

Polling has the disadvantage that if there are too many devices to check, the time required to poll them can exceed the time available to service the I/O device.

Why are social policies controversial? ›

Why are social policies controversial? They require people to accept the authority of the government. They require government to balance the rights and liberties of different groups.

Who rules in a democracy? ›

It is democratic because the people govern themselves, and it is a republic because the government's power is derived from its people. This means that our government – federal, state, and local – is elected by the citizens.

Why is it called a straw poll? ›

Sometimes polls conducted without ordinary voting controls in place (i.e., on an honor system, such as in online polls) are also called "straw polls". The idiom may allude to a straw (thin plant stalk) held up to see in what direction the wind blows, in this case, the metaphorical wind of group opinion.

Why are the results of push polls criticized? ›

Push polls may rely on innuendo, or information gleaned from opposition research on the political opponent of the interests behind the poll. Generally, push polls are viewed as a form of negative campaigning.

What is meant by benchmark in politics? ›

A benchmark is a point of reference for comparison, evaluation, and assessment. It is often used in politics as a point of achievement or smaller goal accomplished along the path to accomplishing the overall or larger goal(s).

What is the purpose of a benchmark survey? ›

When you set benchmarks, you're essentially setting a baseline or standard that you can use to find where you need to improve, set goals, and measure your performance over time. And a great way to benchmark your performance metrics is by using surveys.

What is an example of a benchmark? ›

For example, a technology company could compare its manufacturing processes, such as the supply chain, production methods, and quality control procedures, between its own factories to identify which one is performing better and why.

What does the benchmark stand for? ›

: something that serves as a standard by which others may be measured or judged. a stock whose performance is a benchmark against which other stocks can be measured. b. : a point of reference from which measurements may be made.

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